The worldwide video game and interactive industry is expected to grow from about $29 billion in 2005 to as much as $44 billion in 2011, according to a new report from DFC Intelligence.
The forecast includes revenue from video game hardware and software, dedicated portable system hardware and software, PC games, and online PC and console games.
DFC forecasts the market using three different scenarios for each of the new video game systems, the Sony Playstation 3, the Nintendo Wii and the Microsoft Xbox 360.
Whilst overall market growth is about the same under all three scenarios, the individual platforms have very different results.
DFC analyst David Cole pointed out that although any of the new systems could be the market leader, none of them is likely to have the dominance enjoyed by the Playstation 2.
Cole said: “At its peak Playstation 2 software alone accounted for about 30% of worldwide interactive entertainment revenue. By 2011 we forecast that all console software combined will account for about a third of worldwide sales.”
George Chronis, author of the report, said: “The video game business is changing in major ways. Sony and Nintendo are shaking up the industry with new business models.
“These are uncertain times where neither conventional wisdom nor historical data necessarily predict who the winners and losers will be during the next three-to-five years.”
In June, DFC forecast that the online game market will grow from $3.4 billion in 2005 to $13 billion in 2011, with growth fuelled by the popularity of Multiplayer Online Games (MMOGs) (see Online Games Could Hit $13 Billion By 2011).
Universal McCann’s report TrendMarker, Parallel Worlds said that marketers, if looking to target 18-34 year old males, should focus on MMOGs (see Marketers Should Look To Online Games).
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