US Radio Outlook From Merrill Lynch

As expected, radio revenues in January were up 6% year on year and a similar increase is anticipated for February. However, analysts have cut their March growth prediction from 4.5% to 0% reducing the Q1 spot radio industry forcast from 5.8% to 3.7%

Merrill Lynch has not adjusted its growth assumptions for the remaining quarters of 2003, reckoning that advertisers will shift spending to later in the year. However, it cautions that the forthcoming war could hit revenues in May, traditionally the largest radio advertising month of the year.

After initially forecasting growth of 5.3% for 2003 (see US Radio Advertising Set For 5.3% Growth In 2003, Says Merrill Lynch), Merrill has subsequently reduced its estimate to 4.8% and now 4.3%. Contrary to previous assumptions, local advertising seems to have been hit harder by the slowdown and this is likely to remain the case for the time being.

The economic outlook for 2004 is more promising and the US radio industry is expected to benefit with 7.6% growth on the cards.

US Radio Revenue Growth Forecasts 2003
	% Growth
January	6
February	6
March	0
Q1	3.7
April	5
May	5
June	5
Q2	5
July	4
August	6
September	3
Q3	4.3
October	3
November	4
December	5
Q4	4.1
Full Year	4.3
Source: Merrill Lynch, March 2003