‘Muted And Uneven’ US Press Recovery Predicted By Merrill Lynch
The latest round of US newspaper publishers financial results show that advertising revenues are continuing to be weak, particularly in the national advertising sector (see US Papers Continue To Suffer Ad Declines).
Those expecting sequential improvement in Q3 against easier comparables are likely to find the figures disappointing, says the broker. This may help to stoke fears that the dip in consumer confidence is starting to temper advertising spend.
July comparisons were similar to June’s, but should ease significantly during August and September. Merrill Lynch expects a ‘muted and uneven’ recovery and does not believe that July’s figures represent a turn for the worse.
In the US, both newspapers and magazines are expected to show negative growth this year, with no return to positive growth until 2004, according to Zenith Media forecasts published in July (see US And Asia-Pacific Press Ad Growth Forecasts).
| US Press Adspend | |||||
| 2000 | 2001 | 2002F | 2003F | 2004F | |
| Magazines | 13.5 | -10.0 | -8.0 | -4.0 | 1.0 |
| Newspapers | 11.4 | -6.0 | -4.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 |
| Source: Zenith Media, July 2002 | |||||
