Insight Analysis: Media Growth For 2001 Subdued As Dotcom Fallout Takes Effect
The adspend boom enjoyed by many sectors of the media following the huge growth in dotcom companies over the last couple of years is now starting to slow a little. Whilst most forecasts for online retailers and e-commerce companies predict continued growth and increased consumer spend, the marketing budgets for many dotcoms are being tempered when compared with the initial advertising extravaganza of last year.
Audience sizes for national and regional press, on the other hand, are expected to fall by 2% this year. Classified revenue growth particularly, is expected to fall as the net begins to draw away classified advertisers. The net is ideally suited to classified advertising and has not yet taken full advantage of this. This development will hit the regional press hardest, as it takes the majority of its revenue from classified ads. Total regional revenue growth will be 3.7%; costs will be up just 1.0%. The regional press industry is currently undergoing a period of consolidation and this could further affect the market, says CIA MediaLab. National display is expected to hold its own, despite a downturn in dotcom income, with growth of 3.4% and cost inflation of 3.0%.
Consumer magazines, which did not feel the boon of dotcom spend so much as other sectors, will grow by 3.2%, with CPT up 2.0%, well below the RPI. Outdoor had a good year; revenue growth should reach 6%, as will cost inflation. It is likely that pre-election spend, already visible on posters, will artificially inflate the first quarter. Radio had a good year, attracting national advertisers, although growth was slowing in the final quarter and this trend is expected to continue into the new year. Radio revenue will grow by 9.9%, audience by 3.0% and costs by 6.0%. Growth for online spend will be around 80%, with audience size up by 21.0%.
Overall 2001 will be another year of adspend growth, with total display up 6.2% to £9,284 million. On average cost inflation should fall around the overall inflation mark of 3% – good news for advertisers.