The worldwide market for digital set-top boxes is poised for growth after a slow 2002, with box shipments expected to reach 74.8 million units by 2008, from an estimated 36.4 million in 2003. According to a new report from IMS Research, much of the growth will come from the Asia Pacific region, specifically China and India.
Whilst more than 90% of global TV households currently receive analogue television services, IMS forecasts that nearly 25% of homes will opt for DTV by 2008.
All digital TV platforms are expected to gain subscribers throughout the next five years, although digital terrestrial TV (DTT) will be the standout. Successful rollout of free-to-air digital terrestrial services around the globe will drive growth of terrestrial set-top box shipments by about 45% compound annual growth rate, to reach over 17% of total worldwide shipments by 2008, says the group.
Despite DTT’s successes, direct-to-home (DTH) satellite boxes will retain the largest share of worldwide shipments, at 42% by 2008, according to the report. Digital cable boxes are forecast to account for a 39% share by 2008.
As satellite and cable operators in regions such as North America, Western Europe and Asia Pacific begin to deploy new services, such as digital video recorders, advanced set-top box shipments are anticipated to grow from only 11% market share in 2003, to nearly 23% by 2008.
iDTV forecast IMS also forecasts that the global market for integrated digital televisions (iDTVs) will exceed 26 million units shipped by 2008, up from an estimated 1.5 million in 2003.
It says that consumer take-up of iDTVs has had a slow start, partly due to high prices and larger sizes of iDTVs, as well as minimum education at the retailer and customer level. Currently, over half of total iDTV shipments have been to Japan, with the US and the UK each accounting for less than 20% of shipments.
By 2008, this is expected to change. iDTVs are predicted to gain popularity in many other countries worldwide following successful launches of free-to-air DTT services, such as Freeview in the UK. The US is expected to become the dominant market for iDTVs, with demand driven by regulation requirements. IMS also anticipates that China will become a significant market for iDTVs.
“As more digital programming options become available for iDTV consumers, manufacturers are working to reduce the overall cost of high-end television sets. We’re already seeing the price premium for some iDTVs drop well below that of an advanced set-top box,” said IMS analyst Anna Hunt.
