The next decade will see more big consumer magazine launches than ever before, according to Tim Ewington, director of specialist media strategy consultancy Human Capital.
Writing in
FT Creative Business, Ewington argues that publishing companies will be forced to launch new titles as other routes to growth have begun to disappear, whilst competition is increasing.
Organic growth can come from number of different sources, he says: Selling more magazines domestically; increasing cover prices; increasing advertising revenues; exploiting magazine brands in new ways; selling existing titles in overseas markets and launching new titles.
Cover prices have already increased by over 50% during the 1990s and this substantial rise is not feasible for a decade. There were also some forays in extending UK magazine brands to international markets, with varying degrees of success, and the ad market at present would not sustain rate hikes.
Revenues will most likely come from well-planned key new launches, which, if one player were to begin dominate, could profoundly effect the make-up of the marketplace, says Ewington.
EMAP has already aggressively entered the celebrity sector, one of few growth areas at present, with its Heat title. Other publishers are likely to follow, claims Ewington, who argues that if they don’t, the consequences could be serious.
Lehman Brothers concurs with this analysis and says that EMAP will need to grow through new launches and bolt-on acquisitions if growth targets are to be met. “Both these routes carry risk as well as opportunity,” say the analysts.
“These are the years of living dangerously for the UKÂ’s consumer magazine publishers. They must launch and launch big. If success is spread evenly, the balance of power will remain. But if one player achieves a rich vein of blockbuster hits, its growth and market position will be transformed. This is the key battle of the next 10 years,” the PPA quotes Ewington.
