Analogue Switch Off Extremely Unlikely By 2010 Says Informa
Analogue switch-off by 2010 is extremely unlikely, says a new report from Informa Media Group.
Informa predicts that digital TV (DTV) will reach 34% of global TV households by 2010, tripling the figure reached in 2004 to 365 million. Even though DTV penetration numbers are expected to grow rapidly over the next few years, Informa still doubts that any single country will be ready for analogue switch-off in the near future, including the US who is expected to have 91% digital penetration by 2010. Although 365 million households will be receiving digital, 711 million (65%) will not, making it difficult for Government’s to call for the digital switch.
Report editor, Simon Murray said: “The US will have the highest digital TV penetration by 2010 – at 91%. However, the Government is unlikely to sanction analogue switch-off – even at this high proportion.”
By 2010, DTV via cable is expected to reach 227 million households worldwide, becoming the most popular choice. Direct to home options, such as Sky, will be the next favourite, with 38 million homes receiving DTV in this way.
| Digital TV Household Composition In 2010 (million) | |||||
| DTT | Digital Cable | Digital DTH | DSL Ent. | Total TV* | |
| Asia Pacific | 11.0 | 94.7 | 15.3 | 5.9 | 605.4 |
| Europe | 23.2 | 48.7 | 31.6 | 9.0 | 237.5 |
| Latin America | 1.3 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 107.0 |
| North America | 2.5 | 77.5 | 31.3 | 1.3 | 126.3 |
| Total | 38.0 | 227.4 | 82.7 | 16.8 | 1076.5 |
| *includes digital and analogue homes | |||||
| Source: Infoma Media Group, May 2004 | |||||
Although the report only forecasts until the end of 2010, it does point out that digital growth has plenty of scope well beyond this period because of the high proportion of households expected to still be using analogue. About a fifth of these homes will take up digital cable after 2010, with direct to home being popular in North America and Europe, along with DTT which is expected to reach 10% of European homes, says Informa.
The top five countries in the global digital TV rankings will account for 62% of the total in 2010, down from nearly 70% in 2004.
| Global Rankings By Digital TV Households (000) | |||||
| 2004 | 2010 | ||||
| 1 | USA | 51,240 | 1 | USA | 103,050 |
| 2 | UK | 14,702 | 2 | China | 58,446 |
| 3 | Japan | 6,595 | 3 | India | 21,860 |
| 4 | France | 5,323 | 4 | Japan | 21,487 |
| 5 | Canada | 5,130 | 5 | Germay | 20,778 |
| Source: Informa Media Group, May 2004 | |||||
North America is expected to lead this year, with over 51 million households receiving digital TV. The UK will follow in at second place, with nearly 15 million digital TV households. By 2010, China is predicted to take the UK’s number two spot with 58 million digital TV households, while the UK slips down to sixth place, says Informa.
In the UK, the Governments self-imposed date to terminate the analogue signal falls between 2006 and 2010, but only when 95% of households have DTV access. Many industry groups have been cynical of these plans, including industry watchdog, Ofcom.
Ofcom recently predicted that only 78% of UK households will have adopted DTV by 2010, unless the Government puts together a robust roll-out and marketing plan (see Digital TV Take-Up Will Fall Short Of 2010 Deadline).
The BBC suggested to the Government that a free-to-air digital satellite service may help make the transition from analogue to digital television as smooth as possible (see BBC Calls For Free Digital Satellite Service). Although the Government welcomed the report, no specific comments about this suggestion have yet been made.