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Opinion: Ipsos MediaCT
Andy Haylett, Survey Director
2012 was a pretty unusual year in the world of radio, with several momentous and unique events disrupting the normal flow of listener behaviour. Maybe we were pushed towards other media or distracted elsewhere, meaning we had less time to devote to our usual routines, an area in which radio plays a prominent role.
The latest set of results released by RAJAR today seems to indicate that this was nothing more than a blip; the last three months of the year were a pretty good period for radio – all radio listening is back up to 90% and is over 47 million listeners each week for the first time since the third quarter of 2011.
On top of this good news, the major talking point about this release is likely to be the official verdict on the transition of Radio 1’s Breakfast Show host. As was well publicised, Chris Moyles concluded his long stint in the prime time slot at the end of 2012 and was replaced by Nick Grimshaw.
It’s been quite an eventful first period for Grimshaw – plenty of talk on Twitter and in the press, bans on certain records, celebrities offering their view, even an appearance on stage at the Radio Festival, but we are now down to the serious stuff – the official audience figures.
So, what’s happened? First, Moyles – his final RAJAR reported a reasonably low 6.73 million listeners a week. Not exactly going out with a bang, but let’s not forget that this equates to 13% of the UK population.
The first period for Grimshaw has him with 6.69 million listeners, this doesn’t really represent much of a difference all told. There are many reasons for audiences to change when there is a format change, I expect there will be a fair number of curious trialists, who, as I did, have dipped in and out of the Grimshaw show just to get a feel for what he’s doing differently and to make up their own mind and so on.
In the context that Radio 1 has seen a decline overall, the continuation of the breakfast show audience at its Moyles level isn’t a bad result at all.
One of the key reasons for installing Nick Grimshaw was an attempt to reduce the average age of the Radio 1 listener which had been stubbornly sat at 32, a side effect of this was always likely to be a decline in listener numbers from the older end of the scale, at least in the first instance.
However, already there does seem to have been a slight shift here too, Chris Moyles’ final breakfast show audience had an average age of 32.4 years, Nick Grimshaw has brought this down to 31.9 (based on listeners aged 10+). Again, not really enough of a difference to be proclaimed as a completed mission, but the indicators are that it could be a successful move.
However, this is just one quarter, the BBC will be hoping of course that as Grimshaw develops, his audience will follow. Fortunately, we have a precedent to reference from the not too distant past, the BBC have had a similar change of high profile, popular and long standing presenter Terry Wogan was replaced by Chris Evans.
Worth noting though that there were different reasons behind this change and also, different results. When Wogan left on 18th December 2009, his show was reaching 8.72 million people every week, Evans’s first RAJAR increased this to 9.18 million.
However, after this initial surge, audience levels did drop a little for a couple of quarters, hovering around 8.6 million to 8.8 million listeners. Radio 1 will be hoping that rather than dropping, Grimshaw pulls in a new and larger audience.
As an aside to this, I have wondered if the change at Radio 1 may have had a positive effect on Radio 2. Is it just a coincidence that in the period when Radio 1 has lost listeners through deliberately making changes to station personnel, Radio 2 has hit an all time high? This quarter Radio 2 has added 1.2 million listeners, passing 15 million for the first time, and also added 23.4m hours.
In particular, Chris Evans has recorded a massive 9.52 million listeners, his largest audience by some 300,000. Could it be that the older Radio 1 listener has moved over to Radio 2 in the face of a new format on Radio 1?
It’s difficult to draw any conclusions at this point; long term trends are of more interest in this case. The BBC will no doubt be hoping, if not expecting, Grimshaw to draw in and keep younger listeners over future releases with the knock-on effect of further reducing the average age of listeners to the station.
If they can do this while keeping listeners within the BBC portfolio, then the change is likely to be heralded as a success.
Opinion: MediaCom
Kirsty Poole, Connect Manager
It’s encouraging to see commercial radio remained strong over the last year (with a consistent reach around the 33 million), displaying people loyalty to the medium.
Nationally BBC Radio 2 and the Absolute network have recorded great results. BBC Radio 2 displayed + 8.7% QoQ and +5.9% YoY, recording their highest ever reach of 15.1. The Absolute network has increased +12% QoQ and +17.2% YoY, reflecting the station’s consistency with quality programming.
Bauer have seen a great result in London with Magic remaining in the top spot (in terms of share for four quarters and reach for two) and Kiss 100 remaining in third position (in terms of reach). Most of London has seen a dip in reach QoQ, but we often see a dip in Q4 as summer months affect people listening habits.
Radio consumption via a digital platform has shown a healthy increase of 9% YoY (1.3% QoQ), with 33% of all radio listening. The industry needs to support this pattern of steady growth to enable the digital switch over of analogue stations, after reaching 50% digital penetration.
Online listening (Online/apps) now accounts for 4.95% of the digital share and will play a large role in bolstering digital listening in the future.
Digital success stories this quarter were BBC 6 Music (+16.7% QoQ and 31% QoQ), Absolute 90s (+25.3% YoY), Jazz (+18.8% YoY) and Absolute 00s (+4.2% QoQ and +7.2%), indicating people’s enthusiasm for stations offering something different.