Strong growth expected for UK TV in Q2
Press
According to ZenithOptimedia’s latest UK forecast report, “the uncertainty that plagued the end of 2011 has continued into the start of 2012.
“It’s widely accepted that the Olympics and European football championship in particular (and the Diamond Jubilee to a lesser extent) will provide a real boost to print ad revenues. The debate is to when that surge will commence, and how significant it will be. Those wildly optimistic observers who hoped that this boost would commence in early 2012 were well wide of the mark; NMR is reporting all print ad revenues down 13% in the month of January.
“The trends are becoming worryingly familiar: supermarkets down 25% year on year, and banks down 36%; categories that were until recently the foundation of most publishers’ revenues continuing to show huge decreases.
“Of course, observers still expect the Olympics/Euro football effect to provide a very significant boost to revenues. The question is, will that be significant enough to counter the negative effects of the rest of the year, and leave 2012 in growth?”
National press
“In December 2011 the Guardian axed its Monday to Thursday Sports, Film and Music supplements, moving them back into the main body of the title. Clearly this was mainly a cost cutting exercise on their behalf, but it is also another indication of the Guardian‘s move to becoming ‘platform neutral’.
“As the most digitally-focused publisher in the newspaper sector, it is of little consequence to them which platform their content is read on as long as it generates the biggest numbers. Obviously the bean counters still have some say in matters, but the key consideration is ensuring the content is available to as many people as possible.
“With circulation figures for the printed edition of the Guardian dwindling (234,845 Jul-Dec 2011) but soaring for the digital editions (they hit a new high of almost 3.7 unique users in Nov 2011) it’s clear there are legs to this. Now if they could just monetise the digital platforms as effectively!”
Consumer magazines
“Those niche titles that carry luxury sector advertising appear to be bucking the overall 2012 trend so far, with Vogue the undisputed star of the show, reporting an astonishing 44% growth in revenues (NMR). Whilst these titles are in no way immune from the pain experienced by the rest of the market (Elle is down 11% year on year, and Tatler is down 13%) there are enough examples of growth (Marie Claire and Harpers Bazaar both +5%, Grazia +6%) to show that it is still possible to succeed in a very tough marketplace.
“The expected flood of mega-rich tourists between May and August should provide an opportunity for more titles in this sector.”
TV
“The TV market has performed above expectations in Q1. Many had predicted significant declines, but Q1 is currently sitting just 1% below Q1 in 2011. The FMCG and retail sectors appear to be the hardest hit, while the finance and motor segments have grown over January and February.
“Looking ahead we feel the market will show marginal growth over 2012, but there will be stark differences between the quarters, driven by the two key events of this year: the Euro football championship and the London Olympics. With this is mind we are estimating strong revenue growth in Q2 and marginal declines in Q3 and Q4.”