A dramatic change has been created by The Media Election
Raymond Snoddy on how the media is changing the UK’s political landscape. “The British system has been changed for ever by the power of communication.”
It was Jeanette Winterton the novelist who came right out and said it on Newsnight. The Lib-Dems could win the coming election outright and form the next Government.
Rather surprisingly Jeremy Paxman did not explode but did a ‘come, come, you can’t be serious moment’, with what passed for a reasonable degree of courtesy.
Winterton, better known for her debut novel Oranges Are Not the Only Fruit than her detailed knowledge of the British political system, is obviously mistaken.
Votes do not translate into seats in what many might think a disgracefully out of date and unresponsive system.
Yet the cruel arithmetic has not prevented the Lib-Dem leader Nick Clegg running around telling the Times that he wants to be Prime Minister.
The fact that Winterton and Clegg could say what would have been totally extraordinary things less than three weeks ago is clear evidence of the dramatic change that has been created by The Media Election.
The unresolved issue, which will keep academics amused for years, is which media and in what proportion.
At a first superficial glance the answer seems obvious. It’s the presidential debates that have made all the difference, despite being conducted in straitjackets with minimal audience participation and reaction.
And that of course is true. Without the debates it is inconceivable that a third party could suddenly jump 10 percentage points in the polls and fight to the finishing line to try to hold onto its gains
How David Cameron must be kicking himself. He has created competition for himself by acquiescing in the promotion of an alternative “change model” in the form of Clegg.
If he watched a BBC documentary by Michael Cockerell, shown just before the debates got under way, How To Win The TV Debate, Cameron would have had pause for thought.
Such debates always favour the underdog, Cockerell concluded.
But wasn’t this supposed to be the social networking election not the traditional telly election?
There is still tomorrow night to go and the economy may change everything, although with Vince Cable preparing Clegg it probably won’t.
The first signs are that this will turn out to be the first television debate AND the first social networking election.
The debates bring in the punters by the million and Facebook and Twitter dissect and amplify what has been discussed and mock where mockery has been deserved. Very few candidates have however been writing blogs.
Much of the national press, or at least that part of it cheerleading for a Cameron victory, have managed to sideline themselves in spectacular fashion.
Taken by surprise by the rise of Clegg they have then behaved in a typical brutish way trying to dig up as much dirt on the man as possible – and finding precious little that will stick.
Nationwide research announced this week by Echo Research is revealing.
Over a third say that television have been more important than at the last election but nearly 50% of the population say they have been turning to the internet for information. In cyberspace, discussion of policies also appears to be taking precedence over personalities.
Until now social media has been particularly strong among 18 to 24-year-olds, most of them new voters, many of whom are now rushing to register.
Surprisingly, according to Echo, the social media space has been dominated so far by Conservative viewpoints – 58 per cent – with Labour nowhere to be seen.
But there are still a lot of undecideds out there, or people who are loosely attached and could change their mind at the last minute. There is still a lot to play for tomorrow night.
What will the election and the resurgence of the Lib-Dems in a probable hung Parliament mean for the media?
It would almost certainly mean less financial pressure on the BBC than would result from a Conservative Government with a working majority.
Even David Cameron, however, has been moved to say this week that he is the most “pro-BBC Conservative leader there’s ever been”.
All things are relative.
The Conservatives, he did add, should be as proud of creating the BBC as Labour is of setting up the NHS.
His only barb – and it’s a very modest one compared with Margaret Thatcher – is that the BBC has to cut back and focus on what matters most.
As Enders Analysis has argued, Lib-Dem influence on the new government would mean good news for all media businesses exposed to advertising at least this year and next.
The cuts will, of course, have to come, but a delay could be good for companies like ITV, giving them a breathing space to recover from the worst of the recession.
On self-interest and economic grounds the media world might have to consider a serious bout of tactical voting for the Lib-Dems.
As the beer chills for the BBC leadership debate, which could easily attract the largest audience of the three, one thing is clear.
The British system has been changed for ever by the power of communication, and it is a change that could then be made really irreversible by electoral reform.