2009: A year to forget

Jim Marshall says that this year was one of unfulfilled promises, notable mainly for a lack of urgency on the part of various regulators.

2009 should have been a year that, if nothing else, was going to be memorable. Maybe memorable for a lot of the wrong reasons, because it was a year when the recession bit harder into advertising than could ever have been expected, or of course, predicted.

Yes, it will be remembered for the pain it has caused but apart from that not much else, for the media world at least.

So why should it have been memorable? During 2009 there were three regulatory reviews, all of which had the potential to redefine the media market for the foreseeable future. Firstly Ofcom’s review of Public Service Broadcasting published in January; secondly, the DCMS’ Digital Britain review published in June; and finally the culmination of the CRR review and the Competition Commission’s conclusions published in October. Any one of these could, and should, have had seismic implications for the broadcast industry, the further development of digital media and the media world in general.

So what has happened as result of these various reviews? Well, actually very little!

That may sound a little hard to some, but if you look at the direct implications all three reports, so far at least, there have been none of any great consequence.

Taking them in reverse order, CRR still rumbles on, with the Competition Commission suggesting that it is minded to make no change but has now given itself the breathing space of until next February in which to make that decision, or the decision to do nothing.

The Digital Britain report, at some 250 pages long and with rather sweet thumbnail sketches of the modern British media consumer, failed to give any real direction on all the really difficult issues facing UK media, such as how the traditional public service regional media achieve funding going forward – that’s print, TV and radio – given the onslaught of digital media developments and the severe implications of the recession.

Ofcom’s PSB review at least recognised that the current commercial television structure is unsustainable but it has not facilitated any immediate solutions. I suspect it was hoping that the combination of the end to CRR and some smart suggestions from the Digital Britain boys would be the solution. In the event there haven’t been any solutions, smart or otherwise.

So where to from here?

Though 2010 will be a new year, I’m afraid the problems of 2009 will not have gone away, they will just need to be resolved even more urgently. In spite of an encouraging end to the year with some reasonable revenue growth across most media there is still the desperate need for fundamental restructuring across the majority of the main media.

In fairness it has sort of started already. In commercial television it now looks increasingly likely that the C4 and BBC worldwide deal will go ahead, that Sky will buy Virgin and that the market will consolidate into three main TV sales houses. In print, the much heralded free-market in London has consolidated to a single evening newspaper – the old Standard (!) and the others have gone. And I’m afraid there will have to be some further national and regional newspaper closures. It is also inevitable, both for the national and regional sectors, that there will be sales house consolidations. I’m reluctant to put my neck on the line by suggesting who won’t be around this time next year but, outside of News International, Associated and Mediaforce (for regional newspapers), all the others are potentially expendable! (Which is not to suggest that the others are poor performers, but there can be no sentiment in this current environment – just ask Viacom, who have performed outstandingly over the last few years but are now being merged with Sky sales.)

What else could happen next year which should have happened this year? Radio is going to find it a struggle particularly if government expenditure through COI drops significantly, which is highly likely with the impending election. And I’m afraid the outdoor industry is in a hell of a mess at the moment, with none of the major contractors making anything nearing profits. Again there have to be mergers and consolidations across both sectors and interestingly the prospect of cross-media deals for the regional media, which Ofcom has suddenly suggested should now be allowable.

The point is that none of the stuff that has to happen next year is really going to come as much of a surprise because a lot of it could and should have happened this year. One can argue that the lack of required change and restructuring has been the fault of the media owners, partly due to their reluctance to change and partly due to their own internal wranglings – it’s hardly a surprise that both ITV and Channel 4 have completely overhauled their senior management lineups.

But I would also argue that there has been a lack of direction and leadership on the part of the regulators. In this regard probably the most disappointing event of the year was the publication of the Digital Britain report, which was a massive missed opportunity to help redraw the UK media landscape. Instead it rather weakly passed responsibility back to the other regulators and the media owners.

It feels like the media industry has suffered from an unpleasant bout of paralysis, brought on by the pressures of the economic recession and the resultant plummet in advertising revenues. Whatever the industry’s ailments are, it is in need of some care and attention from the regulators. Unfortunately the regulators have been highly energetic in identifying the symptoms but have provided little or no remedies.

2010 will be a highly memorable year, because all the necessary change will have to take place and we will start to see a UK media structure properly designed for the 21st century. This year will be remembered for nothing, apart from a dire lack of urgency to address the needs of the future, particularly on the part of the various regulators.