The UK ad market is expected to grow by 4.9% in 2020, up from 3.2% in 2019, according to Zenith’s latest Advertising Expenditure Forecasts.
Driving that growth will be a 6.9% jump in digital spending, Zenith said – and by 2022, the agency expects that 71% of UK adspend will be allocated to digital media.
The UK will therefore become the first market in the world to exceed 70% digital adspend.
“We expect strong growth from UK advertising next year, despite the political and economic uncertainty, because it is embracing the digital transformation of marketing wholeheartedly,” said David Mulrenan, Zenith UK’s head of investment.
Zenith forecasts a lower rate of ad expenditure growth globally at 4.3% – an only marginal increase on 2019’s estimated 4.2% growth, which the agency attributes to the disruption caused by the US-China trade dispute.
However, the US and China still lead global adspend growth, accounting for 56% of all growth in ad expenditure over the next three years.
Globally, online video and social will grow the fastest of any channels between 2019 and 2022, rising by an average of 16.6% and 13.8% a year, respectively.
In third place with an annual growth of 11.5% is cinema – although it will still only account for 0.9% of adspend in 2022.
Elsewhere, television will remain flat until 2022, while newspaper adspend will shrink by -4.5% a year and magazines by -8.1%.
Meanwhile, Zenith noted that the price of media has grown faster than adspend over the last 10 years as commercial audiences shrink, with the trend showing no sign of abating.
According to the forecasts, advertising expenditure has grown by 5.1% a year on average since 2010. However, amid the rise of non-commercial video platforms such as Netflix and Amazon Prime, as well as growing use of adblockers and falling print circulations, traditional mass audiences shrunk -1.3% a year over the same period.
Media inflation has therefore averaged a growth of 6.5% a year as demand rises and price falls, with a 6.1% rise to follow in 2020.
“The days when we could find audiences all in one place are long gone,” said Matt James, global brand president at Zenith.
“Now, however, technology empowers us to find them wherever they are, online or offline, and win back value for our clients through efficiency and effectiveness – by ensuring that we target and reach consumers with the right message at the right point in the consumer journey.”