POG, WPP, Google, Sky and other omnipresent predictions
Greg Grimmer predicts the key things in media that definitely will happen in 2014, as well as some more interesting – and slightly off the radar – ideas that could have big implications for the sector.
In the haze of the pre-Christmas maelstrom, I missed my normal slot on Newsline to take a gaze into my media crystal ball and the chance to make some outlandish predictions for the year ahead.
Luckily, for you and me, hundreds of others took to blogging, tweeting and generally sharing their thoughts on the year that has gone and the year that is now upon us.
My fellow Newsline columnist Ray Snoddy did a great précis on all matters media to save you having to read all the hype of programmatic programmers predicating new plateaus of performance, video vendors writing valedictory verses about their virtuous media and mobile mavens making minute by minute mammoth milestones a must have.
As a Native know-it-all I promise to try and find a new trend to bring to you in 2014 but as yet it remains like a trading desk’s true margin – a mystery wrapped in an enigma.
So having got the hype out the way, what do I have left to say about the year ahead – which may or may not be covered at Mediatel’s Year Ahead event on the 15th January?
Well here goes; here’s my whistle stop tour of the things that are actually going to happen in 2014 – rather than a wish list from those with a vested interest.
The Publicis / Omnicom Merger (POG) will happen. There will be lots of noise from disgruntled employees that didn’t get the job they wanted in the new organisation and competitors afraid of the scale of the joint entity – but the new behemoth will succeed anyway.
WPP will respond to the POG merger in the only way it knows how – by fighting and screaming its way to increased market share through aggressive organic and shrewd acquisitive growth.
Facebook, despite the predictions of every thirty-something researcher and analyst, will continue its growth in both users and revenue and still have almost every teenager on the planet still using it by the year’s end.
Google will continue to exert its powerful dominance in search and increase its power in video, display and mobile. No legislature – UK, US, EU or elsewhere – will be able to challenge its global might.
Sky (and this is where I veer from my esteemed colleague Mr Snoddy) will fight back against BT pitching its tanks on Sky Sports’ manicured lawn. Expect some big plays from the boys in Osterley (née Sydney) and I for one expect them to play dirty and win big.
So there are my Big Five – and without exception they could have been written, not only at any time over the last year, but change some of the names and the players they pretty much could have been written at any time over the last 20 years.
Agency holding groups getting bigger, more media-centric, and more global. Technology companies becoming media companies, and dominating the chattersphere, and a Murdoch-led operation responding to the latest competitive threat.
So are we done here? Nothing else to see? Let’s all move on?
Well not quite. I thought I’d stick my neck out and cover some more important areas; ones that we all care about to one degree or another.
Entertainment
Forget the Information Age; we live in the Entertainment Age – and interestingly the genres of entertainment that have always dominated continue to do so. Here are my predictions for sport, music and film – and why they matter to those in media.
Sport
Cycling is the new rock ‘n’ roll. After the Olympic track success and two successive British Tour de France wins, you may think this is a bandwagon too late to jump on. You would be wrong. The Yorkshire Grand Depart of the Tour de France will be the biggest cycling event that the UK has ever seen and will catapult cycling to become a mainstream televised sport in the UK.
Why is this important to media?
As the excellent research report co-written by media’s own Steve Beckett highlights, cycling is a massively undervalued property – some brand planners and sponsorship divisions will seize on this opportunity in 2014 and reap the benefit of early entry.
Music
Sam Smith is your new favourite artist – I’m a bit late to this as he has already been tipped by a number of music critics for big things in 2014; but as I first called him a male Adele back in the Autumn and have noticed a Boy George resemblance in more recent times, I’m claiming Cowell-esque tendencies and will redeem my cool points when you all buy his début album in May.
Why is this important to media?
Simon Pont, an erstwhile colleague of mine and now a fellow Newsline columnist, gave me a great quote last year when we were discussing the digital music property VEVO: “Every Brand should have a music strategy,” he proclaimed.
I tend to agree; every brand should have a playlist; every target audience an anthem; every campaign a soundtrack. Music is a short-cut through a world cluttered by technology and we choose our friends by (or occasionally despite of) their music tastes.
Film
American Hustle will win the best picture Oscar.
The 70s have never been cooler than in David Russell’s movie about a con artist’s pact with the FBI. I may be sticking my neck out as there are a number of more ‘worthy’ films likely to be in the frame this year, but I feel like living dangerously with this one.
Why is this important to media?
Not my stab in the dark Oscar prediction, but for two reasons film remains important to the media eco system. Firstly, the major studios have never been keener to look to brands for involvement in production and marketing.
Secondly, the way in which movies are now distributed post cinematic release, together with Hollywood produced TV series, will accelerate in 2014 as services such as Netflix and Blinkbox hit the tipping point of consumer uptake.
So there you have it; five cast-iron certainties and three outlandish predictions that you might enjoy watching me fail to deliver on as the year progresses.
Fundamentally though, I think whatever field of media we work, in 2014 it will prove interesting, challenging and hopefully more rewarding than 2013.