Netflix is expected to retain the global market lead for subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) platforms over the next five years with 251 million total subscribers.
The streaming giant currently has approximately 221 million subscribers after losing subscribers during the past two quarters amid greater competition from new platforms, according to a report from Digital TV Research.
Digital TV Research’s previous June forecast had Disney+ overtaking Netflix by 2027 with 274 million predicted subscribers for Disney+ to Netflix’s 253 million subs. But the latest forecast places Disney+ second-best with 207 million expected subs.
Simon Murray, principal analyst at Digital TV Research, said of the change: “these forecasts assumed that Disney+ Hotstar would retain the India Premier League cricket rights. It didn’t, hence the 67 million lower forecast for Disney+.”
Netflix is also anticipated to remain the revenue winner among all streaming services, with $30bn in revenue expected by 2027. The value is similar to the forecasted revenue for Disney+, HBO Max, and Paramount+ combined.
Despite the downgrade for Disney+, SVOD revenues for the streaming service are still expected to reach $15bn by 2027.
Murray continued: “Despite lowering our forecasts by 67 million subscribers, SVOD revenues for Disney+ will be the same in 2027 as our previous forecast. SVOD ARPUs and revenues will increase in key markets after the platform introduces the hybrid AVOD-SVOD tier and the more expensive SVOD-only tier”.
Digital TV Research last week predicted Netflix would gain just 3 million subscribers in Europe by 2027, which would drag the streaming giant’s market share in the continent down from 36% to 26%. The global figures imply that Netflix’s growth will occur elsewhere.
Global SVOD revenues are predicted to reach $132bn by 2027, with 1.68 billion predicted subscribers across all streaming services, a 49% increase from 2021. Six US-based platforms—Netflix, Disney+, Paramount+, HBO, Amazon Prime Video, and Apple TV+—are anticipated to account for 47% of global subs.