Brexit, brands and the fickle consumer

From the impending EU Referendum to marketing strategies, the way a question is asked can have a huge effect on how it is answered, writes Zenith’s Richard Shotton.

There will be many heated arguments in offices, living rooms and pubs over the next two months about the EU referendum. However, despite the rancour about which way to vote, there’s broad agreement that the decision is an important one.

Without hyperbole David Cameron described it as a “once in a generation decision”. So surely the result will depend on profound issues, like the effect of leaving on sovereignty, immigration and the economy.

If we were the rational creatures of an economist’s imagination, then maybe so. However, the idea that people make fully reasoned decisions has been debunked by psychologists, such as Daniel Kahneman.

His book, “Thinking, Fast and Slow”, which has sold over a million copies in the UK, demonstrated that many decisions are made intuitively with little conscious control. He has also shown that these automatic decisions can be shaped by seemingly inconsequential details.

The answer depends on how the question is worded

At Zenith we wanted to understand if the “once in a generation decision” could be swayed by minutiae. We recruited 500 nationally representative people and asked them about their voting intentions.

However, there was a subtle tweak in the wording. Half were asked if they wanted the UK to remain in the EU; the rest if the UK should become independent from the EU.

Considering the gravity of the matter, the wording should be inconsequential. However, the result varied according to the way the question was phrased. When voters were asked about remaining, the majority wanted to stay. But when the question was phrased as a matter of independence then most people wanted to leave.

Stop and consider how strange this is. On a vote of national importance the result could be swung by a peripheral factor; the mere phrasing of the question.

What is depressing for democrats, is interesting for marketers

If a referendum can be swayed by the wording of a question, then seemingly peripheral tweaks should be a far more powerful influence on the unthinking purchase of everyday goods, like deodorants, shampoo or beer. If our views are lightly held then a nudge can create a more dramatic shift in behaviour.

The sales impact generated by subtle changes in purchasing conditions was demonstrated by Adrian North, psychology professor at Heriot Watt University. He persuaded a supermarket to alternate the music in the wine aisle: one week it would be traditional German oompah music, the next French accordion music.

When accordion music was played French wine accounted for 77% of wine sales whereas when oompah music played German wine accounted for 73% of sales. A detail so small that most consumers failed to notice it had a huge impact on sales volumes.

Start from a principle of zero budget

There is a misconception, rife in marketing, that big problems can only be solved with big budgets. However, our research shows that minor changes in the context of decision making can have a disproportionate influence.

Before assuming that a multi-million pound marketing campaign is the answer brands should imagine they have no ad budget. What simple, change could they make to the purchasing context?

As Rory Sutherland so eloquently puts it, dare to be trivial.

Richard Shotton is head of insight at Zenith

Twitter: @rshotton